Europe's Fast-Closing Carbon Window

I read this right as I was getting towards the end of Underground Empire, which includes a section about CBAM. The article touches on a key question in front of us: what’s going to be the result of the US’ regressive climate policies, Europe’s market-based regulation, and China’s build-oriented approach. This isn’t just about climate change (although that’s arguably the biggest obstacle humanity needs to deal with if we could get past the political and economic squabbling). This is all happening within the context of AI as well – there’s been a lot of discussion about the scalability of China’s grid and its embrace of renewables, and how that’s going to compare to the US as it kills climate projects and data-center demands are already driving up domestic energy costs.

At the heart of the matter is influence and alliances. If the US adopts a policy of denial on climate issues, what will the rest of the world do? What will our allies do? Starting trade wars (among other isolationist policies) doesn’t seem to be earning us any favors. If the US threatens sanctions against climate policies and takes an even more isolationist stance, at some point won’t the rest of the world abandon us, or take up their own efforts against us for the good of the world?

Is there a future where the US is at war with nations who are allied to protect the planet? Do they eventually cut us off, and then what are the results if our future leadership is as petulant as our present?

Unless AI is powered by renewables, AI and climate action are at odds, and the US seems to be racing toward that conflict.

If China leads the rest of the world on renewables, that leaves the US increasingly isolated. The US has a lot of weapons, and it has the knowledge behind the best chips. But if China catches up on design and fabrication of the latter, what does the US have left?